For acoustic propagation through a shallow ocean channel or waveguide, the coherence between different transmissions is controlled primarily by the roughness of the ocean surface and to a lesser degree by fluctuations in the volume. In this study, the coherent-to-incoherent intensity ratio (CTIR) is defined as a way to quantify the coherence between multipath transmissions and ocean surface rms wave height and wind speed. A theory that connects the CTIR and the coherent surface reflection coefficient is developed using both Kirchhoff and small-slope approximations as rough surface scattering models. The CTIRs have been evaluated over a period of several days using broad-band experimental results from shallow-water deployment of source and receiver arrays that span most of the water column. Estimates of wind speed and rms wave height obtained using these CTIR calculations are compared with environmental measurements to demonstrate the validity of the theory.