insu-03581114
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581114
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581114/document
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03581114/file/npg-21-797-2014.pdf
doi:10.5194/npg-21-797-2014
[INSU] INSU - Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers
[UNIV-PARIS7] Université Denis Diderot - Paris VII
[AFRIQ] HAL-Francophonie, Afrique et océan indien
[CNRS] CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique
[IPGP] Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris
[SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE] Sorbonne Université
[UNIV-PARIS] Université Paris Cité
[SU-TI] Sorbonne Université - Texte Intégral
[ALLIANCE-SU] Alliance Sorbonne Université
Can irregularities of solar proxies help understand quasi-biennial solar variations?
Shapoval, A.
Le Mouël, J. L.
Shnirman, M.
Courtillot, V.
[SDU] Sciences of the Universe [physics]
ART
We define, calculate and analyze irregularity indices λ<SUB>ISSN</SUB> of daily series of the International Sunspot Number ISSN as a function of increasing smoothing from N = 162 to 648 days. The irregularity indices λ are computed within 4-year sliding windows, with embedding dimensions m = 1 and 2. λ<SUB>ISSN</SUB> displays Schwabe cycles with ~5.5-year variations ("half Schwabe variations" HSV). The mean of λ<SUB>ISSN</SUB> undergoes a downward step and the amplitude of its variations strongly decreases around 1930. We observe changes in the ratio R of the mean amplitude of λ peaks at solar cycle minima with respect to peaks at solar maxima as a function of date, embedding dimension and, importantly, smoothing parameter N. We identify two distinct regimes, called Q1 and Q2, defined mainly by the evolution of R as a function of N: Q1, with increasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs before 1915-1930; and Q2, with decreasing HSV behavior and R value as N is increased, occurs after ~1975. We attempt to account for these observations with an autoregressive (order 1) model with Poissonian noise and a mean modulated by two sine waves of periods T<SUB>1</SUB> and T<SUB>2</SUB> (T<SUB>1</SUB> = 11 years, and intermediate T<SUB>2</SUB> is tuned to mimic quasi-biennial oscillations QBO). The model can generate both Q1 and Q2 regimes. When m = 1, HSV appears in the absence of T<SUB>2</SUB> variations. When m = 2, Q1 occurs when T<SUB>2</SUB> variations are present, whereas Q2 occurs when T<SUB>2</SUB> variations are suppressed. We propose that the HSV behavior of the irregularity index of ISSN may be linked to the presence of strong QBO before 1915-1930, a transition and their disappearance around 1975, corresponding to a change in regime of solar activity.
2014
2022-02-19
en
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
European Geosciences Union (EGU)