Developing hazard scenarios from monitoring data, historical chronicles, and expert elicitation: a case study of Sangay volcano, Ecuador - INSU - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers
Article Dans Une Revue Bulletin of Volcanology Année : 2024

Developing hazard scenarios from monitoring data, historical chronicles, and expert elicitation: a case study of Sangay volcano, Ecuador

Benjamin Bernard
  • Fonction : Auteur
Pablo Samaniego
Andrea Bevilacqua
  • Fonction : Auteur
Francisco J. Vasconez
  • Fonction : Auteur
Alvaro Aravena
  • Fonction : Auteur
Mattia De'Michieli Vitturi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Silvana Hidalgo
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Sangay volcano is considered as one of the most active volcanoes worldwide. Nevertheless, due to its remote location and low-impact eruptions, its eruptive history and hazard scenarios are poorly constrained. In this work, we address this issue by combining an analysis of monitoring data and historical chronicles with expert elicitation. During the last 400 years, we recognize periods of quiescence, weak, and enhanced eruptive activity, lasting from several months to several years, punctuated by eruptive pulses, lasting from a few hours to a few days. Sangay volcano has been mainly active since the seventeenth century, with weak eruptive activity as the most common regime, although there have also been several periods of quiescence. During this period, eruptive pulses with VEI 1-3 occurred mainly during enhanced eruptive activity and produced far-reaching impacts due to ash fallout to the west and long-runout lahars to the south-east. Four eruptive pulse scenarios are considered in the expert elicitation: strong ash venting (SAV, VEI 1-2), violent Strombolian (VS, VEI 2-3), sub-Plinian (SPL, VEI 3-4), and Plinian (PL, VEI 4-5). SAV is identified as the most likely scenario, while PL has the smallest probability of occurrence. The elicitation results show high uncertainty about the probability of occurrence of VS and SPL. Large uncertainties are also observed for eruption duration and bulk fallout volume for all eruptive scenarios, while average column height is better characterized, particularly for SAV and VS. We interpret these results as a consequence of the lack of volcano-physical data, which could be reduced with further field studies. This study shows how historical reconstruction and expert elicitation can help to develop hazard scenarios with uncertainty assessment for poorly known volcanoes, representing a first step towards the elaboration of appropriate hazard maps and subsequent planning.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
s00445-024-01754-4.pdf (2 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

insu-04730615 , version 1 (10-10-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Benjamin Bernard, Alessandro Tadini, Pablo Samaniego, Andrea Bevilacqua, Francisco J. Vasconez, et al.. Developing hazard scenarios from monitoring data, historical chronicles, and expert elicitation: a case study of Sangay volcano, Ecuador. Bulletin of Volcanology, 2024, 86, 68 [19 p.]. ⟨10.1007/s00445-024-01754-4⟩. ⟨insu-04730615⟩
31 Consultations
7 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More