Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes
A.L. Daniau
(1)
,
P.J. Bartlein
(2)
,
S.P. Harrison
(1, 3)
,
I.C. Prentice
(3, 4, 5)
,
Scott Brewer
(6)
,
Pierre Friedlingstein
(7, 8)
,
T. Harrison-Prentice
(9)
,
J. Inoue
(10)
,
K. Izumi
(2)
,
J.R. Marlon
(11)
,
S. Mooney
(12)
,
Mitchell James Power
(13)
,
J. Stevenson
(14)
,
W. Tinner
(15)
,
M. Andric
(16)
,
J. Atanassova
(17)
,
H. Behling
(18)
,
M. Black
(12)
,
O. Blarquez
(19)
,
K.J. Brown
(20)
,
Christopher Carcaillet
(21)
,
E.A. Colhoun
(22)
,
D. Colombaroli
(15)
,
B.A.S. Davis
(23)
,
D. d'Costa
(24)
,
J. Dodson
(25)
,
L. Dupont
(26)
,
Zewdu Eshetu
(27)
,
D.G. Gavin
(2)
,
Aurélie Genries
(19)
,
Simon Haberle
(28)
,
D.J. Hallett
(29)
,
G. Hope
(14)
,
S.P. Horn
(30)
,
T.G. Kassa
(31)
,
F. Katamura
(32)
,
L.M. Kennedy
(33)
,
P. Kershaw
(24)
,
S. Krivonogov
(34)
,
C. Long
(35)
,
D. Magri
(36)
,
E. Marinova
(17)
,
G.M. Mckenzie
(24)
,
P.I. Moreno
(37)
,
P. Moss
(38)
,
F.H. Neumann
(39, 40)
,
E. Norström
(41)
,
C. Paitre
(42)
,
D. Rius
(43)
,
N. Roberts
(44)
,
G.S. Robinson
(45)
,
N. Sasaki
(46)
,
L. Scott
(47)
,
H. Takahara
(48)
,
Valery T. Terwilliger
(49, 50)
,
Florian Thevenon
(51)
,
R. Turner
(44, 52)
,
V.G. Valsecchi
(15)
,
Boris Vannière
(43)
,
M. Walsh
(2, 53)
,
N. Williams
(54)
,
Y. Zhang
(55)
1
School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
2 Department of Geography
3 School of Biological Sciences
4 School of Earth Sciences [Bristol]
5 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Division of Biology
6 Botany Department
7 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
8 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
9 Newton St. Cyres
10 Osaka University [Osaka]
11 Department of Geography
12 BEES - School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney]
13 Utah Museum of Natural History
14 Department of Archaeology and Natural History
15 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
16 Institute of Archaeology
17 Department of Botany
18 Palynology and Climate Dynamics
19 CBAE - Centre de Bio-Archéologie et d'Ecologie
20 Canadian Forest Service
21 PALECO - Paléoenvironnement et chronoécologie UMR 5059-CNRS/Montpellier II/EPHE
22 School of Environmental and Life Sciences
23 Institute of Environment, Science and Technology
24 School of Geography and Environmental Science
25 Institute for Environmental Research
26 MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen]
27 Department of Paleoanthropology and Paleoenvironment
28 RSPS - Department of Archaeology and Natural History
29 Biogeoscience Institute
30 Department of Geography
31 Seminar of Geography and Education
32 Tokushu Kosho Gijutsu Inc
33 Department of Geography
34 United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy of the Russian Academy of Sciences
35 Department of Geography and Urban Planning
36 Dipartimento di Biologia Vegetale
37 Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity and Department of Ecological Sciences
38 Department of Planning and Environmental Management
39 Bernard Price Institute for Palaeontology
40 Forschungsstelle für Paläobotanik
41 Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
42 Département de Géographie et Centre d'Études Nordiques
43 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
44 SoGEES - School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Plymouth]
45 Department of Natural Sciences
46 RIHN - Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
47 Department of Plant Sciences
48 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences
49 ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
50 Department of Geography
51 Forel Institute
52 Pedagogic Research Institute and Observatory
53 Department of Geography
54 Natural Resources Policy Section
55 Institute of Botany, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change
2 Department of Geography
3 School of Biological Sciences
4 School of Earth Sciences [Bristol]
5 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Division of Biology
6 Botany Department
7 EMPS - College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter]
8 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
9 Newton St. Cyres
10 Osaka University [Osaka]
11 Department of Geography
12 BEES - School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney]
13 Utah Museum of Natural History
14 Department of Archaeology and Natural History
15 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
16 Institute of Archaeology
17 Department of Botany
18 Palynology and Climate Dynamics
19 CBAE - Centre de Bio-Archéologie et d'Ecologie
20 Canadian Forest Service
21 PALECO - Paléoenvironnement et chronoécologie UMR 5059-CNRS/Montpellier II/EPHE
22 School of Environmental and Life Sciences
23 Institute of Environment, Science and Technology
24 School of Geography and Environmental Science
25 Institute for Environmental Research
26 MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences [Bremen]
27 Department of Paleoanthropology and Paleoenvironment
28 RSPS - Department of Archaeology and Natural History
29 Biogeoscience Institute
30 Department of Geography
31 Seminar of Geography and Education
32 Tokushu Kosho Gijutsu Inc
33 Department of Geography
34 United Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy of the Russian Academy of Sciences
35 Department of Geography and Urban Planning
36 Dipartimento di Biologia Vegetale
37 Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity and Department of Ecological Sciences
38 Department of Planning and Environmental Management
39 Bernard Price Institute for Palaeontology
40 Forschungsstelle für Paläobotanik
41 Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
42 Département de Géographie et Centre d'Études Nordiques
43 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
44 SoGEES - School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Plymouth]
45 Department of Natural Sciences
46 RIHN - Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
47 Department of Plant Sciences
48 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences
49 ISTO - Institut des Sciences de la Terre d'Orléans - UMR7327
50 Department of Geography
51 Forel Institute
52 Pedagogic Research Institute and Observatory
53 Department of Geography
54 Natural Resources Policy Section
55 Institute of Botany, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change
A.L. Daniau
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 174590
- IdHAL : anne-laure-daniau
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1621-3911
- IdRef : 12852538X
Pierre Friedlingstein
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 750146
- IdHAL : pierre-friedlingstein
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3309-4739
Christopher Carcaillet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 992945
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6632-1507
- IdRef : 124831931
D. Rius
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1189172
- IdHAL : damienrius
Boris Vannière
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 170991
- IdHAL : boris-vanniere
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6779-6053
- IdRef : 22094850X
N. Williams
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 761972
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0602-484X
Résumé
Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
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