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Journal Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions Year : 2022

Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

1 CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
2 BSC - CNS - Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion
3 Department of Geography [Montréal]
4 NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research
5 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
6 Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research
7 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
8 The University of Tennessee [Knoxville]
9 ENVS - Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde]
10 INRASTES - Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety
11 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
12 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
13 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
14 Dipartimento di Chimica "Ugo schifo"
15 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
16 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
17 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
18 Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio]
19 Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland
20 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
22 LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
23 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
24 CESS - Center for Earth System Science [Beijing]
25 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University
26 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
27 University of Toronto
28 EERL - Extreme Environments Research Laboratory
29 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
30 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
Sabine Eckhardt
Mark Flanner
Joshua S. Fu
Fabio Giardi
Ulas Im
Kathy S. Law
Dirk Olivié
Tatsuo Onishi
Jean-Christophe Raut
Julia Schmale
Rita Traversi
Kaley A. Walker


The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
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Dates and versions

insu-03454867 , version 1 (29-11-2021)
insu-03454867 , version 2 (21-05-2022)





Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, et al.. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 2022, pp.(Discussions). ⟨10.5194/acp-2021-975⟩. ⟨insu-03454867v1⟩
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