Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study
Cynthia H. Whaley
(1)
,
Rashed Mahmood
(2, 3)
,
Knut von Salzen
(1)
,
Barbara Winter
(1)
,
Sabine Eckhardt
(4)
,
Stephen Arnold
(5)
,
Stephen Beagley
(6)
,
Silvia Becagli
(7)
,
Rong-You Chien
(8)
,
Jesper Christensen
(9)
,
Sujay M. Damani
(1)
,
Kostas Eleftheriadis
(10)
,
Nikolaos Evangeliou
(4)
,
Gregory S. Faluvegi
(11, 12)
,
Mark Flanner
(13)
,
Joshua S. Fu
(8)
,
Michael Gauss
(7)
,
Fabio Giardi
(14)
,
Wanmin Gong
(6)
,
Jens Liengaard Hjorth
(9)
,
Lin Huang
(6)
,
Ulas Im
(9)
,
Yugo Kanaya
(15)
,
Srinath Krishnan
(16)
,
Zbigniew Klimont
(17)
,
Thomas Kühn
(18, 19)
,
Joakim Langner
(20)
,
Kathy S. Law
(21)
,
Louis Marelle
(22)
,
Andreas Massling
(9)
,
Dirk Olivié
(7)
,
Tatsuo Onishi
(21)
,
Naga Oshima
(23)
,
Yiran Peng
(24)
,
David A. Plummer
(1)
,
Olga Popovicheva
(25)
,
Luca Pozzoli
(26)
,
Jean-Christophe Raut
(21)
,
Maria Sand
(16)
,
Laura N. Saunders
(27)
,
Julia Schmale
(28)
,
Sangeeta Sharma
(6)
,
Henrik Skov
(9)
,
Fumikazu Taketani
(15)
,
Manu A. Thomas
(20)
,
Rita Traversi
(14)
,
Kostas Tsigaridis
(11, 12)
,
Svetlana Tsyro
(7)
,
Steven Turnock
(29, 5)
,
Vito Vitale
(26)
,
Kaley A. Walker
(27)
,
Minqi Wang
(24)
,
Duncan Watson-Parris
(30)
,
Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
(1)
1
CCCma -
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
2 BSC-CNS - Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion
3 Department of Geography [Montréal]
4 NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research
5 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
6 Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research
7 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
8 The University of Tennessee [Knoxville]
9 ENVS - Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde]
10 INRASTES - Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety
11 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
12 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
13 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
14 Dipartimento di Chimica "Ugo schifo"
15 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
16 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
17 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
18 Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio]
19 Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland
20 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
21 TROPO - LATMOS
22 LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
23 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
24 CESS - Center for Earth System Science [Beijing]
25 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
26 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
27 University of Toronto
28 EERL - Extreme Environments Research Laboratory
29 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
30 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
2 BSC-CNS - Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion
3 Department of Geography [Montréal]
4 NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research
5 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
6 Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research
7 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
8 The University of Tennessee [Knoxville]
9 ENVS - Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde]
10 INRASTES - Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety
11 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
12 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
13 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
14 Dipartimento di Chimica "Ugo schifo"
15 JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
16 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
17 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
18 Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio]
19 Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland
20 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
21 TROPO - LATMOS
22 LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
23 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
24 CESS - Center for Earth System Science [Beijing]
25 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University = Université d'État Lomonossov de Moscou [Moscou]
26 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
27 University of Toronto
28 EERL - Extreme Environments Research Laboratory
29 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
30 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
Cynthia H. Whaley
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Rashed Mahmood
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Sabine Eckhardt
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Silvia Becagli
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Jesper Christensen
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Kostas Eleftheriadis
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Nikolaos Evangeliou
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Mark Flanner
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Joshua S. Fu
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Fabio Giardi
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Ulas Im
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Thomas Kühn
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Kathy S. Law
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Louis Marelle
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Dirk Olivié
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Naga Oshima
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Jean-Christophe Raut
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Maria Sand
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Julia Schmale
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-1048-7962
Henrik Skov
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Rita Traversi
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Kostas Tsigaridis
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Svetlana Tsyro
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Steven Turnock
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Kaley A. Walker
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Duncan Watson-Parris
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Résumé
The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
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