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Journal Articles Nature Climate Change Year : 2022

Biophysical and economic constraints on China's natural climate solutions

Nan Lu
  • Function : Author
Hanqin Tian
  • Function : Author
Bojie Fu
  • Function : Author
Huiqian Yu
  • Function : Author
Shilong Piao
  • Function : Author
Shiyin Chen
  • Function : Author
Ya Li
  • Function : Author
Xiaoyong Li
  • Function : Author
Mengyu Wang
  • Function : Author
Zidong Li
  • Function : Author
Lu Zhang
  • Function : Author
Pete Smith
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO2e yr−1 (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO2 emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO2e yr−1 (6% of fossil CO2 emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO2e yr−1 during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO2e)−1, respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Dates and versions

insu-03824356 , version 1 (21-10-2022)

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Nan Lu, Hanqin Tian, Bojie Fu, Huiqian Yu, Shilong Piao, et al.. Biophysical and economic constraints on China's natural climate solutions. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12, pp.847-853. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3⟩. ⟨insu-03824356⟩
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