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Journal Articles Global Biogeochemical Cycles Year : 2022

Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Masayuki Kondo
  • Function : Author
Stephen Sitch
  • Function : Author
Frédéric Achard
  • Function : Author
Etsushi Kato
  • Function : Author
Julia Pongratz
  • Function : Author
Richard A. Houghton
  • Function : Author
Josep G. Canadell
  • Function : Author
Prabir K. Patra
  • Function : Author
Pierre Friedlingstein
  • Function : Author
Wei Li
  • Function : Author
Peter Anthoni
  • Function : Author
Almut Arneth
  • Function : Author
Raphael Ganzenmüller
  • Function : Author
Anna Harper
  • Function : Author
Atul K. Jain
  • Function : Author
Charles Koven
  • Function : Author
Sebastian Lienert
  • Function : Author
Danica Lombardozzi
  • Function : Author
Takashi Maki
  • Function : Author
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
  • Function : Author
Takashi Nakamura
  • Function : Author
Yosuke Niwa
  • Function : Author
Benjamin Poulter
  • Function : Author
Thomas A. M. Pugh
  • Function : Author
Christian Rödenbeck
  • Function : Author
Tazu Saeki
  • Function : Author
Benjamin Stocker
  • Function : Author
Andy Wiltshire
  • Function : Author
Sönke Zaehle
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s-2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.
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Dates and versions

insu-03721936 , version 1 (13-07-2022)

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Attribution - NonCommercial

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Masayuki Kondo, Stephen Sitch, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Achard, Etsushi Kato, et al.. Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2022, 36 (1), pp.e2020GB006909. ⟨10.1029/2020GB006909⟩. ⟨insu-03721936⟩
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