Journal Articles Earth and Space Science Year : 2024

Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Tomasz Kur
  • Function : Author
Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz
  • Function : Author
Malgorzata Wińska
  • Function : Author
Henryk Dobslaw
  • Function : Author
Jolanta Nastula
  • Function : Author
Aleksander Partyka
  • Function : Author
Santiago Belda
  • Function : Author
Dale Boggs
  • Function : Author
Sara Bruni
  • Function : Author
Lue Chen
  • Function : Author
Mike Chin
  • Function : Author
Sujata Dhar
  • Function : Author
Robert Dill
  • Function : Author
Pengshuo Duan
  • Function : Author
Jose M. Ferrandiz
  • Function : Author
Junyang Gou
  • Function : Author
Richard Gross
  • Function : Author
Sonia Guessoum
  • Function : Author
Songtao Han
  • Function : Author
Robert Heinkelmann
  • Function : Author
Chengli Huang
  • Function : Author
Christopher Irrgang
  • Function : Author
Jacek Kudrys
  • Function : Author
Jia Li
  • Function : Author
Marcin Ligas
  • Function : Author
Lintao Liu
  • Function : Author
Weitao Lu
  • Function : Author
Volker Mayer
  • Function : Author
Wei Miao
  • Function : Author
Maciej Michalczak
  • Function : Author
Sadegh Modiri
  • Function : Author
Michiel Otten
  • Function : Author
Todd Ratcliff
  • Function : Author
Shrishail Raut
  • Function : Author
Jan Saynisch-Wagner
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Matthias Schartner
  • Function : Author
Erik Schoenemann
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Harald Schuh
  • Function : Author
M. Kiani Shahvandi
  • Function : Author
Benedikt Soja
  • Function : Author
Xiaoqing Su
  • Function : Author
Daniela Thaller
  • Function : Author
Maik Thomas
  • Function : Author
Guocheng Wang
  • Function : Author
Yuanwei Wu
  • Function : Author
Cancan Xu
  • Function : Author
Xueqing Xu
  • Function : Author
Xinyu Yang
  • Function : Author
Xin Zhao
  • Function : Author
Zhijin Zhou
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.
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insu-04858853 , version 1 (30-12-2024)

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Tomasz Kur, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Malgorzata Wińska, Henryk Dobslaw, Jolanta Nastula, et al.. Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign. Earth and Space Science, 2024, 11, pp.2023EA003278. ⟨10.1029/2023EA003278⟩. ⟨insu-04858853⟩
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